Economic and Housing Outlooks Brighten According to Fannie Mae Analysis Group

The headline is from Rismedia whose article starts out, "RISMEDIA, December 28, 2010—Improvements in consumer spending and consumer confidence, increased demand for goods and services, and falling unemployment claims are all positive factors for a brighter outlook as we move into 2011, according to the December 2010 Economic Outlook released today by Fannie Mae's (OTC Bulletin Board: FNMA)"

Did they read my previous post? Apparently not.
Nor did they notice "Survey Shows Consumer Confidence Slips in December
ABC News - Anne D'Innocenzio" and similar articles all over Google News this AM.

What I do know is that it is hard to get a house under $120,000 into contract unless you have cash and out bid the other cash investors. Some homes have a 30 day grace period for owner-occupiers only, but you still have to get the bank to agree to your lowball offer. Yes, everybody wants to lowball the bank.

The problem there is, those people who have learned you can't be ridiculous generally outbid the people who are still in denial and think it is a buyer's market.
As has been mentioned, it is a Banker's market and the rules of common sense, not to mention the Statute of Frauds (that requires contracts to be in a SIGNED writing to be enforceable), and the time honored definitions of what is or is not a "counter-offer" do not seem to apply when bank asset managers are involved. Don't expect a counter offer if you bid low. Expect a notice that they have multiple offers and everybody has to make their highest and best bid in order to play.
Multiple can mean two, and the other offer may be lower than you. The bank just wants to see how far you may go in bidding against yourself. Lovely.

You can win this battle but it may take time. Call me when you are ready to start.

Double Dip Warning

http://blogs.forbes.com/afontevecchia/2010/12/28/double-dip-in-housing-almost-here-according-to-case-shiller-index/

The link above will take you to an article that may be good news for investors waiting to buy,
and less than good news for sellers waiting to sell. It is somebody's opinion and not pre-ordained,
but it is worth considering.
Truly,
Grant

Las Vegas November Real Estate Stats

The listed versus sold ratio for 2010 is down slightly from last year standing at 59%, still very respectable. For 2009 the ratio wrapped up at 65%. Both years are well above the three previous years.

We should note that November home sales stood at 2777 units, well above October’s 2599, and just below the 2800 levels of August and September. November traditionally falls below October and it is December that can show an uptick. So, at the moment, sales are strong.

Resale home Listings at 3973 are below at the lowest level for the year and the lowest in November in the past 5 years. Listings were at 5589 in October. This could be the result of the recent foreclosure moratorium putting a dip in the number of homes coming to market.

For the moment, this could an opportunity for traditional sellers. Many buyers are tired of dealing with REO's and losing short sale transactions to foreclosure after investing months of time.

Unless we have huge December sales, we should end 2010 with less than the 47,000 closings of all types that we did in 2009. That number, 47K, was well above 2006-7-8.
Also, for 2010, the average price of a Las Vegas home is standing at about $167,000, down about $3000 from 2009.

What does this mean? I think it means “not much change yet.”
If Freddie and Fannie begin to force banks to buy back the bad loans, or if Congress takes away all or part of the mortgage interest tax deduction, then we will see what we will see.
What do you think?
Happy Holidays.
Grant