Listed to Sold Ratio Falls to 61% in Las Vegas

Bottom line, the market is still hot, but too many people are signing up for frustration.
In 2009, the ratio of single family homes listed to homes sold in Las Vegas was 67%.
It was only 38% in 2006 as the air went out, 24% in 2007 as they flashed the lights and told everyone the party was over, and 41% as cash buyers began to pick up the bargains. The Blue Light was definitely flashing last year as buyers bought everything in sight, with multiple offers on every bank owned property because inventory was the lowest (57,000 units in 2009) in four consecutive years of declining inventory.
So what's up with this - a listed to closed ratio so far in 2010 of only 61%?

Well, inventory is about the same as last year and sales, except for the past couple months, have been hanging in there. In the last two months, sales are down a little but remain at a very high and respectable rate. I think we are seeing the effect of short sales on the closing ratio of the market.

Have I mentioned that short sales don't close so good?

Well, now they are a substantial percentage of Las Vegas closings, but like the line to get into Pirates of the Caribbean where Disney hides all the ride-goers in waiting, there is a huge number of short sales in the cue.
As more and more of these heart breakers go into escrow on the promise that the banks will make the short sale closings more efficient, the listed-to-close ratio is beginning to show what a mirage this promise actually is, at least so far.

If you have a non-short sale house to sell, or if you want a house you can actually move into before the kids are out of college, call me. 702-285-4226

Traditional sellers are your best bet!

In Las Vegas, Pending to Close ratios for the past 30 days: Of 12,727 Short Sales IN Contract, 985 closed for a success ratio of only 7.7%!
Of 1958 Bank Owned properties in contract, 1004 (51%) closed. Private owners closed 882 of 1281 in escrow for a success ratio of 68.8%. The House Team has more tradional seller listings coming up. Call us!

Banks Postpone Inevitable in Clark CO Indefinitely

I got an email from Kim Petersen at American Title. She wrote. "I’m attaching our April, 2010, reports for you to review and as always, hope that you’re able to use them in your day to day business as you continue to educate your clients about our market. You’ll notice that the majority of the properties that were scheduled to go to trustee sale were postponed (about 48%) more than likely due to a pending loan modification or pending short sale."

I think the banks just postpone because they don't want to increase the number of REO's at the moment.

Whe I do the math based on the April Graph Kim sent, I see that 89,871 properties were given a notice of default in the past 12 months. But, only 23,479 were sold by the trustee. Given that they took 48% of the ones that got a notice of sale, the bank only took 26% of the ones in default. There are 66,392 homes in Default.

To put that in perspective, MLS data shows there are 1697 bank owned (REO) listings for sale today, of all types - condos, SFR, Manufactured. Let's presume they all close every month. Of all the short sales on the market or in escrow (12,600+/-) we close about 600 a month or 6-7%(MLS data). What that means is we have enough property in default to maintain the May 2010 status quo for about 28 years!

Unless something changes in the efficiency of closing short sales, we could be dragging bottom for a long time, especially if the banks continue to refuse to give the seller a full release. The HAFA act MIGHT help with owner occuped homes, Maybe.
Flippers that bought cheap and those who bought before the bubble are much sought after because they respond to your offfer and they close.

I hear a good rumor that several thousand REO's will hit the market mid summer. Looking at the data, it could happen. Or the banks could drag it out. As I have said before, this is not a buyer's market. It is a bankers market.

In the meantime, if you need a Realtor, Call House!

Now what would cause this? Short Sales?

"Number of Contracted Units
Reaches All-Time High

Not only has the number of properties under contract escalated, the distribution of property types has also shifted according to data obtained from the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors (GLVAR). During the past week, the count of properties with a contract in place that require certain contingencies to be cleared (“contingent”) reached 13,406 homes, the highest in southern Nevada’s history. The number of contingent units reflects a 70.6-percent increase from the same period of the prior year, while the majority (81.1 percent) of these units is subject to bank approval on a short sale."
The above from: Krysta Sitko
Assistant Vice President / Business Development
Fidelity National Title

As we recented suggested, MLS data shows 70% of all short sales are ALWAYS in escrow, because only 7 in 100 ever close. To get short sales to become 20% of Las Vegas closings means (1) Realtors and sellers are doing more than twice as much work on all of them and (2) a few still trickle out the end of the pipe because there are historic numbers in the system.

Bottom line - still - don't buy a short sale if you want to get the keys.

Suddenly, your checking account is empty!

You have already agreed that it is OK for your bank to do this to you without notice. And they do take care of their clients. Too bad their depositors and barrowers (ie, YOU) are actually NOT their client as far as they are concerned.
Email me and I will send you the link for a bit of sobering news. The bank can sweep your account if you bank at the same place you owe money.
If you are having or anticipating financial problems, you may want to read this.
Then talk with your accountant and attorney about how to protect yourself.
Truly,
Grant

May Day! May Day!

Things are still a little crazy. The tax credit is over. All the first time buyers have gone home (They say. We shall see). If you are an investor, it is your time to shine. So what will you buy?

Short Sales? They ARE all the rage right now. The new HAFA program and the new Wahmu (yes, there is still Wahmu) program will make them so easy...or not. What can you really expect?

Of 13,095 short sales in the Las Vegas MLS either for sale or in escrow, a whopping 695 closed in April! Gee, that's a 5.3% closing ratio for short sales, just like it has always been.

Some Brokers tout the fact that 695 closings is 26% of the 2644 single family homes closed in April. They don't mention that represents 2013% of the man hours spent trying to close the non short sales, or that these short sale contracts were signed last JUNE, or that they fell out of escrow twice because the buyers grew old and died while they were waiting. OK, you want data.

When we take out the the short sales listed for sale but not in escrow, that leaves 9202 short sales in escrow (yes, 70% of short sales are in escrow at all times!) and they produced 695 closed transactions. That is 7% - 7 out of every 100 short sale escrows closed.
In the same period 4024 non short sale escrows produced 1949 closed transactions.
That is 48%. That is about 7 times better.

If not buying short sales, what about REO, bank owned, write multiple offers and never hear back from the bank-owned-agents who don't answer their phone or work weekends? What about those? Well, there are only 1079 REO's on the market today.

By contrast, there are 3049 single family homes for sale that are NOT REOs or short sales. Most of these are other investors who are flipping the property. If, as I believe, investors hate to buy from other investors, then the market reminds me of the old western sidekick of the 1960's named Slim Pickens.

Let's say you are looking for a non-short sale, 3 bed, 2 full bath, 2 car garage, under $150,000 anywhere in Las Vegas valley that Kevlar is NOT a requirement; there are 392 homes available.

Prices are low. Inventory is low. The banks want to make us all do short sales.
Believe it or not, NEW Homes are actually beginning to make sense again.
Call me. It's crazy, but I can guide you through it.

Traditional Sellers hit 50% of listings

Las Vegas home sales back on the rise in March. Click for Graph.
There are 966 bank owned (REO) single family homes available for sale in Vegas today.
There are 3400 short sales for sale in the same areas. We have 4021 single family homes for sale that claim to NOT be bank owned or short sales - about 50% of the market.... Closing 4000 per month, as in Mar, we have a 2 month supply of homes.
Ignore the short sales, because only 5% ever close, and it is a 5 week supply. That makes it tough to get one in contract! I can help. Call me.