The Case-Shiller Index, released last Tuesday, showed Atlanta, Charlotte, Chicago, Detroit, Las Vegas, Miami, Portland, Seattle and Tampa, to name a few, had hit new bottoms, falling to the lowest levels since prices peaked in 2006 and 2007. Stan Humphries, chief economist at Zillow.com, a real estate information site said, “It is going to be a rocky bottom, where we bounce around," ...and after that, "it is likely that real estate appreciation won't keep up with inflation."
On the other hand:
RISMEDIA, January 18, 2011— reports that "Housing will see gradual improvements in activity this year as the nation’s economy and job market continue to move to higher ground, establishing momentum that will produce more considerable gains in 2012, according to economists who appeared at the NAHB International Builders’ Show in Orlando on January 12."
O brother, where art thou?
Everybody needs a house to live in. If you decide to buy one, make sure it is one you like. Good Hunting.
Tuesday, February 1, 2011
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
December 2010 Real estate Data from Fidelity
December 2010 SFR Volumes
December posted another strong month of SFR sales, with a total of 3117 units reported. This was a 12.2% increase over the Nov 2010 volume, which places 2010 as the second highest annual volume in the past 6 years, 34,434 SFR units vs, 38,127 units for 2009.
December 2010 SFR Average Sales Price
December posted an Average sales price of $163,736, this was a .7% increase from Nov 2010, and a .2% increase over Dec 2009. A very narrow SFR price range has continued consistently since Apr 2009.
Many factors continue to be at play for 2010 with both price and volume, such as the banks holding onto foreclosed properties for longer periods between acquisition and resale, lenders are becoming increasingly agreeable to short sale negotiation and of course the economy in Nevada. (Used with permission from Linda Sitko, Fidelity Natl Title)
Linda mentions lenders becoming more agreeable to short sales. As you know if you read my blog, I am a non-believer. When the short sale close ratio (16%) begins to approach the REO/traditional close ratio (above 70%), then we'll think the banks are getting cozy with short sales.
As for sales, more than 3000 in a month is a whole lot. It means multiple offers on all the good stuff. If you spotted it (on the internet) so did everybody else. That is why the average price crept up in Dec. When I get time, we'll check and see if the % of list price shows a drop in the acceptance of low ball offers.
That doesn't mean that prices can't fall as predicted. Nothing is certain.
December posted another strong month of SFR sales, with a total of 3117 units reported. This was a 12.2% increase over the Nov 2010 volume, which places 2010 as the second highest annual volume in the past 6 years, 34,434 SFR units vs, 38,127 units for 2009.
December 2010 SFR Average Sales Price
December posted an Average sales price of $163,736, this was a .7% increase from Nov 2010, and a .2% increase over Dec 2009. A very narrow SFR price range has continued consistently since Apr 2009.
Many factors continue to be at play for 2010 with both price and volume, such as the banks holding onto foreclosed properties for longer periods between acquisition and resale, lenders are becoming increasingly agreeable to short sale negotiation and of course the economy in Nevada. (Used with permission from Linda Sitko, Fidelity Natl Title)
Linda mentions lenders becoming more agreeable to short sales. As you know if you read my blog, I am a non-believer. When the short sale close ratio (16%) begins to approach the REO/traditional close ratio (above 70%), then we'll think the banks are getting cozy with short sales.
As for sales, more than 3000 in a month is a whole lot. It means multiple offers on all the good stuff. If you spotted it (on the internet) so did everybody else. That is why the average price crept up in Dec. When I get time, we'll check and see if the % of list price shows a drop in the acceptance of low ball offers.
That doesn't mean that prices can't fall as predicted. Nothing is certain.
Las Vegas Residential Volatility to Continue
This from RISMEDIA, January 18, 2011: Housing WILL see gradual improvements in activity this year as the nation’s economy and job market continue to move to higher ground, establishing momentum that WILL produce more considerable gains in 2012, according to economists who appeared at the NAHB International Builders’ Show in Orlando on January 12. (Capitol letters by GH. They are taking as big a chance as I am for sharing this!)
Compare and contrast with the following:
"During 2010, Las Vegas residential real estate inventories followed a path of ups and downs as sales volumes in the resale and new construction sectors were impacted by government intervention and pricing slid to new lows during the latest cycle. Pricing movements taking place during the past several years in the southern Nevada market have raised the region’s national profile. Unfortunately, the profile has been characterized by record-setting price depreciation and foreclosure activity in recent years, which followed opposite trends reported during the majority of the 2004 to 2006 timeframe when price point increases were atop the price appreciation rankings. Regardless of the metrics analyzed, there is one certainty – that there is no certainty." (Used with permission from Krysta Sitko, Assistant Vice President / Business Development, Fidelity National Title)
I concur with the latter. There is no certainty. What I truly wonder is whether the world economy is now moving off the recognized playing board and into unknown territory in which the business cycles relied upon in the past do not apply any more.
I know that right now Vegas real estate is very busy and I get the feeling that people are acting AS IF a recovery is coming. I think a new normal may be developing wherein buyers and investors are actively snapping up the good deals. I just don't know what is next. In any event, good hunting.
Compare and contrast with the following:
"During 2010, Las Vegas residential real estate inventories followed a path of ups and downs as sales volumes in the resale and new construction sectors were impacted by government intervention and pricing slid to new lows during the latest cycle. Pricing movements taking place during the past several years in the southern Nevada market have raised the region’s national profile. Unfortunately, the profile has been characterized by record-setting price depreciation and foreclosure activity in recent years, which followed opposite trends reported during the majority of the 2004 to 2006 timeframe when price point increases were atop the price appreciation rankings. Regardless of the metrics analyzed, there is one certainty – that there is no certainty." (Used with permission from Krysta Sitko, Assistant Vice President / Business Development, Fidelity National Title)
I concur with the latter. There is no certainty. What I truly wonder is whether the world economy is now moving off the recognized playing board and into unknown territory in which the business cycles relied upon in the past do not apply any more.
I know that right now Vegas real estate is very busy and I get the feeling that people are acting AS IF a recovery is coming. I think a new normal may be developing wherein buyers and investors are actively snapping up the good deals. I just don't know what is next. In any event, good hunting.
Thursday, January 6, 2011
Short Sales re-visited again!
I used to think only 7% of short sales in escrow closed, but that has changed.
They are at last in double digits - the lowest of double digits.
Of 5949 short sales in escrow, Las Vegas closed 766 in the past 30 days. = 13% success rate. (this is better than it has been!) "Hey coach, put me in. I'm making 13% of my shots and I shoot like crazy!"
There are another 6300 short sales in ER (available) status in the Las Vegas valley.
Of 2828 NON-short sales in escrow, Las Vegas closed 2114 in the past 30 days = 75% success rate. Even Kobe rarely hits this percentage.
There are another 6244 NON-short sales available.
Short sales are half the market. There are three times as many shorts in escrow as non-shots, but there are only 1/4 as many short sale closings as regular closings.
My advice still is "take the high percentage shot" and bench the low percentage player.
Good Hunting.
They are at last in double digits - the lowest of double digits.
Of 5949 short sales in escrow, Las Vegas closed 766 in the past 30 days. = 13% success rate. (this is better than it has been!) "Hey coach, put me in. I'm making 13% of my shots and I shoot like crazy!"
There are another 6300 short sales in ER (available) status in the Las Vegas valley.
Of 2828 NON-short sales in escrow, Las Vegas closed 2114 in the past 30 days = 75% success rate. Even Kobe rarely hits this percentage.
There are another 6244 NON-short sales available.
Short sales are half the market. There are three times as many shorts in escrow as non-shots, but there are only 1/4 as many short sale closings as regular closings.
My advice still is "take the high percentage shot" and bench the low percentage player.
Good Hunting.
Tuesday, December 28, 2010
Economic and Housing Outlooks Brighten According to Fannie Mae Analysis Group
The headline is from Rismedia whose article starts out, "RISMEDIA, December 28, 2010—Improvements in consumer spending and consumer confidence, increased demand for goods and services, and falling unemployment claims are all positive factors for a brighter outlook as we move into 2011, according to the December 2010 Economic Outlook released today by Fannie Mae's (OTC Bulletin Board: FNMA)"
Did they read my previous post? Apparently not.
Nor did they notice "Survey Shows Consumer Confidence Slips in December
ABC News - Anne D'Innocenzio" and similar articles all over Google News this AM.
What I do know is that it is hard to get a house under $120,000 into contract unless you have cash and out bid the other cash investors. Some homes have a 30 day grace period for owner-occupiers only, but you still have to get the bank to agree to your lowball offer. Yes, everybody wants to lowball the bank.
The problem there is, those people who have learned you can't be ridiculous generally outbid the people who are still in denial and think it is a buyer's market.
As has been mentioned, it is a Banker's market and the rules of common sense, not to mention the Statute of Frauds (that requires contracts to be in a SIGNED writing to be enforceable), and the time honored definitions of what is or is not a "counter-offer" do not seem to apply when bank asset managers are involved. Don't expect a counter offer if you bid low. Expect a notice that they have multiple offers and everybody has to make their highest and best bid in order to play.
Multiple can mean two, and the other offer may be lower than you. The bank just wants to see how far you may go in bidding against yourself. Lovely.
You can win this battle but it may take time. Call me when you are ready to start.
Did they read my previous post? Apparently not.
Nor did they notice "Survey Shows Consumer Confidence Slips in December
ABC News - Anne D'Innocenzio" and similar articles all over Google News this AM.
What I do know is that it is hard to get a house under $120,000 into contract unless you have cash and out bid the other cash investors. Some homes have a 30 day grace period for owner-occupiers only, but you still have to get the bank to agree to your lowball offer. Yes, everybody wants to lowball the bank.
The problem there is, those people who have learned you can't be ridiculous generally outbid the people who are still in denial and think it is a buyer's market.
As has been mentioned, it is a Banker's market and the rules of common sense, not to mention the Statute of Frauds (that requires contracts to be in a SIGNED writing to be enforceable), and the time honored definitions of what is or is not a "counter-offer" do not seem to apply when bank asset managers are involved. Don't expect a counter offer if you bid low. Expect a notice that they have multiple offers and everybody has to make their highest and best bid in order to play.
Multiple can mean two, and the other offer may be lower than you. The bank just wants to see how far you may go in bidding against yourself. Lovely.
You can win this battle but it may take time. Call me when you are ready to start.
Double Dip Warning
http://blogs.forbes.com/afontevecchia/2010/12/28/double-dip-in-housing-almost-here-according-to-case-shiller-index/
The link above will take you to an article that may be good news for investors waiting to buy,
and less than good news for sellers waiting to sell. It is somebody's opinion and not pre-ordained,
but it is worth considering.
Truly,
Grant
The link above will take you to an article that may be good news for investors waiting to buy,
and less than good news for sellers waiting to sell. It is somebody's opinion and not pre-ordained,
but it is worth considering.
Truly,
Grant
Wednesday, December 8, 2010
Las Vegas November Real Estate Stats
The listed versus sold ratio for 2010 is down slightly from last year standing at 59%, still very respectable. For 2009 the ratio wrapped up at 65%. Both years are well above the three previous years.
We should note that November home sales stood at 2777 units, well above October’s 2599, and just below the 2800 levels of August and September. November traditionally falls below October and it is December that can show an uptick. So, at the moment, sales are strong.
Resale home Listings at 3973 are below at the lowest level for the year and the lowest in November in the past 5 years. Listings were at 5589 in October. This could be the result of the recent foreclosure moratorium putting a dip in the number of homes coming to market.
For the moment, this could an opportunity for traditional sellers. Many buyers are tired of dealing with REO's and losing short sale transactions to foreclosure after investing months of time.
Unless we have huge December sales, we should end 2010 with less than the 47,000 closings of all types that we did in 2009. That number, 47K, was well above 2006-7-8.
Also, for 2010, the average price of a Las Vegas home is standing at about $167,000, down about $3000 from 2009.
What does this mean? I think it means “not much change yet.”
If Freddie and Fannie begin to force banks to buy back the bad loans, or if Congress takes away all or part of the mortgage interest tax deduction, then we will see what we will see.
What do you think?
Happy Holidays.
Grant
We should note that November home sales stood at 2777 units, well above October’s 2599, and just below the 2800 levels of August and September. November traditionally falls below October and it is December that can show an uptick. So, at the moment, sales are strong.
Resale home Listings at 3973 are below at the lowest level for the year and the lowest in November in the past 5 years. Listings were at 5589 in October. This could be the result of the recent foreclosure moratorium putting a dip in the number of homes coming to market.
For the moment, this could an opportunity for traditional sellers. Many buyers are tired of dealing with REO's and losing short sale transactions to foreclosure after investing months of time.
Unless we have huge December sales, we should end 2010 with less than the 47,000 closings of all types that we did in 2009. That number, 47K, was well above 2006-7-8.
Also, for 2010, the average price of a Las Vegas home is standing at about $167,000, down about $3000 from 2009.
What does this mean? I think it means “not much change yet.”
If Freddie and Fannie begin to force banks to buy back the bad loans, or if Congress takes away all or part of the mortgage interest tax deduction, then we will see what we will see.
What do you think?
Happy Holidays.
Grant
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