The headline is from Rismedia whose article starts out, "RISMEDIA, December 28, 2010—Improvements in consumer spending and consumer confidence, increased demand for goods and services, and falling unemployment claims are all positive factors for a brighter outlook as we move into 2011, according to the December 2010 Economic Outlook released today by Fannie Mae's (OTC Bulletin Board: FNMA)"
Did they read my previous post? Apparently not.
Nor did they notice "Survey Shows Consumer Confidence Slips in December
ABC News - Anne D'Innocenzio" and similar articles all over Google News this AM.
What I do know is that it is hard to get a house under $120,000 into contract unless you have cash and out bid the other cash investors. Some homes have a 30 day grace period for owner-occupiers only, but you still have to get the bank to agree to your lowball offer. Yes, everybody wants to lowball the bank.
The problem there is, those people who have learned you can't be ridiculous generally outbid the people who are still in denial and think it is a buyer's market.
As has been mentioned, it is a Banker's market and the rules of common sense, not to mention the Statute of Frauds (that requires contracts to be in a SIGNED writing to be enforceable), and the time honored definitions of what is or is not a "counter-offer" do not seem to apply when bank asset managers are involved. Don't expect a counter offer if you bid low. Expect a notice that they have multiple offers and everybody has to make their highest and best bid in order to play.
Multiple can mean two, and the other offer may be lower than you. The bank just wants to see how far you may go in bidding against yourself. Lovely.
You can win this battle but it may take time. Call me when you are ready to start.
Tuesday, December 28, 2010
Double Dip Warning
http://blogs.forbes.com/afontevecchia/2010/12/28/double-dip-in-housing-almost-here-according-to-case-shiller-index/
The link above will take you to an article that may be good news for investors waiting to buy,
and less than good news for sellers waiting to sell. It is somebody's opinion and not pre-ordained,
but it is worth considering.
Truly,
Grant
The link above will take you to an article that may be good news for investors waiting to buy,
and less than good news for sellers waiting to sell. It is somebody's opinion and not pre-ordained,
but it is worth considering.
Truly,
Grant
Wednesday, December 8, 2010
Las Vegas November Real Estate Stats
The listed versus sold ratio for 2010 is down slightly from last year standing at 59%, still very respectable. For 2009 the ratio wrapped up at 65%. Both years are well above the three previous years.
We should note that November home sales stood at 2777 units, well above October’s 2599, and just below the 2800 levels of August and September. November traditionally falls below October and it is December that can show an uptick. So, at the moment, sales are strong.
Resale home Listings at 3973 are below at the lowest level for the year and the lowest in November in the past 5 years. Listings were at 5589 in October. This could be the result of the recent foreclosure moratorium putting a dip in the number of homes coming to market.
For the moment, this could an opportunity for traditional sellers. Many buyers are tired of dealing with REO's and losing short sale transactions to foreclosure after investing months of time.
Unless we have huge December sales, we should end 2010 with less than the 47,000 closings of all types that we did in 2009. That number, 47K, was well above 2006-7-8.
Also, for 2010, the average price of a Las Vegas home is standing at about $167,000, down about $3000 from 2009.
What does this mean? I think it means “not much change yet.”
If Freddie and Fannie begin to force banks to buy back the bad loans, or if Congress takes away all or part of the mortgage interest tax deduction, then we will see what we will see.
What do you think?
Happy Holidays.
Grant
We should note that November home sales stood at 2777 units, well above October’s 2599, and just below the 2800 levels of August and September. November traditionally falls below October and it is December that can show an uptick. So, at the moment, sales are strong.
Resale home Listings at 3973 are below at the lowest level for the year and the lowest in November in the past 5 years. Listings were at 5589 in October. This could be the result of the recent foreclosure moratorium putting a dip in the number of homes coming to market.
For the moment, this could an opportunity for traditional sellers. Many buyers are tired of dealing with REO's and losing short sale transactions to foreclosure after investing months of time.
Unless we have huge December sales, we should end 2010 with less than the 47,000 closings of all types that we did in 2009. That number, 47K, was well above 2006-7-8.
Also, for 2010, the average price of a Las Vegas home is standing at about $167,000, down about $3000 from 2009.
What does this mean? I think it means “not much change yet.”
If Freddie and Fannie begin to force banks to buy back the bad loans, or if Congress takes away all or part of the mortgage interest tax deduction, then we will see what we will see.
What do you think?
Happy Holidays.
Grant
Thursday, November 18, 2010
As We Proceed with Caution
Dear Friends,
What can I tell you?
Buy stocks? (Gary Shilling, president of the economic research firm A. Gary Shilling & Co. Photographer: Jonathan Fickies/Bloomberg
Nov. 11 (Bloomberg)) ... Gary Shilling, who predicted the U.S. housing collapse, says the stock market is overvalued and foresees a “significant” selloff within a year as the Federal Reserve fails to stimulate economic growth.
Buy Gold? Then read articles like this from Weekend Investor
Nov. 12, 2010, 5:20 p.m. EST :
"Why gold is a bad investment ...
Precious metal lures susceptible buyers into a Midas crush." Gold doesn't pay interest and as the article says, "it is (only) going up because people are buying it." Sounds oddly like real estate in Las Vegas in 2007.
We may already have a gold bubble.
What are new home builders saying? Why, they say stuff like this from an email today:
PICK TWO! Pick Two!
Purchase and close escrow on your new home by 1/31/2011 and receive TWO FREE GIFTS from (WXYZ) Homes. Pick two of the following gift packages (up to a total value of $5,000):
Home Furniture Package
Shopping Spree
Moving Expenses Paid
Deferred Mortgage Payment
Landscape Package
Does this sound a little like the discount lunch special? They seem to shout,
"We're not desperate. We're not desperate. We're not scared and there is no buggy man!"
Then, why on earth would they offer incentives like that?
Try this one from Nuwire Weekly today: On trimming the deficit from "...the bipartisan commission in February to provide options on overhauling the tax system and reducing the national deficit. According to a November report, one option excludes citizens from deducting interest payments on second residences, home equity loans or mortgages over $500,000. Other options would be to tax dividends and capital gains at the ordinary rates."
Dark times of biblical proportions. Hey, sinner man, where's your money going to run to? Run to the rock? To the ocean? Or just to interest on the deficit.
From the lack of commitment in real estate (there is still interest, like fishing with hook and line and watching the cork bob up and down...)it would indicate that most people are opting to stay puy, stay liquid, and see what really happens when Congress changes hands...Change like we've seen before. As a Realtor, I am in favor of anything that drags this out forever ... not. The problem may be that those who usually take the long term view, see the low interest, the low prices, and streaks of blood in the streets spelling out the words "buy now", still can't make out the cold clear dawn of the usual upswing at the end of a cycle. Perhaps they worry, "this may not be cyclical this time."
And 2012 looms.
2013 never looked so good.
What can I tell you?
Buy stocks? (Gary Shilling, president of the economic research firm A. Gary Shilling & Co. Photographer: Jonathan Fickies/Bloomberg
Nov. 11 (Bloomberg)) ... Gary Shilling, who predicted the U.S. housing collapse, says the stock market is overvalued and foresees a “significant” selloff within a year as the Federal Reserve fails to stimulate economic growth.
Buy Gold? Then read articles like this from Weekend Investor
Nov. 12, 2010, 5:20 p.m. EST :
"Why gold is a bad investment ...
Precious metal lures susceptible buyers into a Midas crush." Gold doesn't pay interest and as the article says, "it is (only) going up because people are buying it." Sounds oddly like real estate in Las Vegas in 2007.
We may already have a gold bubble.
What are new home builders saying? Why, they say stuff like this from an email today:
PICK TWO! Pick Two!
Purchase and close escrow on your new home by 1/31/2011 and receive TWO FREE GIFTS from (WXYZ) Homes. Pick two of the following gift packages (up to a total value of $5,000):
Home Furniture Package
Shopping Spree
Moving Expenses Paid
Deferred Mortgage Payment
Landscape Package
Does this sound a little like the discount lunch special? They seem to shout,
"We're not desperate. We're not desperate. We're not scared and there is no buggy man!"
Then, why on earth would they offer incentives like that?
Try this one from Nuwire Weekly today: On trimming the deficit from "...the bipartisan commission in February to provide options on overhauling the tax system and reducing the national deficit. According to a November report, one option excludes citizens from deducting interest payments on second residences, home equity loans or mortgages over $500,000. Other options would be to tax dividends and capital gains at the ordinary rates."
Dark times of biblical proportions. Hey, sinner man, where's your money going to run to? Run to the rock? To the ocean? Or just to interest on the deficit.
From the lack of commitment in real estate (there is still interest, like fishing with hook and line and watching the cork bob up and down...)it would indicate that most people are opting to stay puy, stay liquid, and see what really happens when Congress changes hands...Change like we've seen before. As a Realtor, I am in favor of anything that drags this out forever ... not. The problem may be that those who usually take the long term view, see the low interest, the low prices, and streaks of blood in the streets spelling out the words "buy now", still can't make out the cold clear dawn of the usual upswing at the end of a cycle. Perhaps they worry, "this may not be cyclical this time."
And 2012 looms.
2013 never looked so good.
Tuesday, October 26, 2010
Crystal Ball is Cloudy
“The clear problem in the housing market today is not foreclosures, but negative equity; and as long as the focus remains on the symptom rather than the disease we will see little progress towards real solutions and this crisis will drag on for years to come," says Sean O’Toole, CEO and Founder of ForeclosureRadar.com.
“…80% of people who have a mortgage in Las Vegas are underwater. 16% are delinquent on their mortgage payments. Why …? Some cannot make their payments... but many others simply don’t want to continue making mortgage payments on a house that is worth only half of what they owe on it,” reports Kristy Black, Business Development, Fidelity National Title.
What does this mean for prices? I have been trying to get a handle on it and I think it means "don’t believe much of anything you read until after the election." The arrows on the sign posts are all pointing in different directions depending on the agenda of the writer.
I think Mr. O’Toole’s “drag on for years to come” statement might sum it up. Google News articles hint that we sales are up (start of recovery!) but prices are falling (no recovery yet!) and may continue to fall.
So, if you need to sell, the possible continued fall in prices makes NOW better than Later. And if you need a house, buy a house. Even if you wait, it’s always going to be something.
If you want to bet on lower prices and you can wait, then wait. Just call me when you are ready … and please share with me what made you pull the trigger. We all want to know!
My Magic Crystal 8-Ball is cloudy.
“…80% of people who have a mortgage in Las Vegas are underwater. 16% are delinquent on their mortgage payments. Why …? Some cannot make their payments... but many others simply don’t want to continue making mortgage payments on a house that is worth only half of what they owe on it,” reports Kristy Black, Business Development, Fidelity National Title.
What does this mean for prices? I have been trying to get a handle on it and I think it means "don’t believe much of anything you read until after the election." The arrows on the sign posts are all pointing in different directions depending on the agenda of the writer.
I think Mr. O’Toole’s “drag on for years to come” statement might sum it up. Google News articles hint that we sales are up (start of recovery!) but prices are falling (no recovery yet!) and may continue to fall.
So, if you need to sell, the possible continued fall in prices makes NOW better than Later. And if you need a house, buy a house. Even if you wait, it’s always going to be something.
If you want to bet on lower prices and you can wait, then wait. Just call me when you are ready … and please share with me what made you pull the trigger. We all want to know!
My Magic Crystal 8-Ball is cloudy.
Monday, September 13, 2010
August Market Data - the Patient has a Pulse
In Las Vegas in August, the inventory of single family homes was climbing to about 5000 units … but it was still below one year ago and was also at it’s lowest August level in 5 years. The ratio of homes listed to homes sold in 2010 is 62%, second highest in 5 years, but still behind last year’s 67% - when, as a buyer, it was really hard to get into contract. In the same way, the number of single family homes closed is lagging behind last year. With four months to go in 2010, total sales have almost equaled the 5 year low of 2008 at almost 30,000 homes. And, the average sale price, at $168,000, is slightly below last year’s average and slightly below the 2010 high, both about $170,000. On the rental front, occupancy is at 82% which is better than the 76% average of 2009, but not quite as good as the previous three years.
So, what does it mean?
It’s like hurricane Igor still in the Atlantic. The experts say it should be turning one way or the other, but it is just continuing to slide along in the same direction with dire warnings posted well in advance.
Given this is an election year, I don’t look for any big news to be validated by the national media until after the elections.
On the local front, the House Team has sold each of their three traditional listings this summer in less than a week, two of them above list price! The reason, we believe, is buyer frustration with banks and lack of bank approval on short sales. If you need to sell, sooner may be better. If the Bad News Bears come out again after November 2nd, it could hurt your sale price.
So, what does it mean?
It’s like hurricane Igor still in the Atlantic. The experts say it should be turning one way or the other, but it is just continuing to slide along in the same direction with dire warnings posted well in advance.
Given this is an election year, I don’t look for any big news to be validated by the national media until after the elections.
On the local front, the House Team has sold each of their three traditional listings this summer in less than a week, two of them above list price! The reason, we believe, is buyer frustration with banks and lack of bank approval on short sales. If you need to sell, sooner may be better. If the Bad News Bears come out again after November 2nd, it could hurt your sale price.
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Vegas Sales fall in July but Sky does Not ...Yet
Not that I think prices couldn't fall some time in the future because of a large phantom inventory of foreclosures (They might), but the BADNEWS media making hay of the July drop in home sales to sell their newspapers doesn't tell the whole story.
*
In Las Vegas, one of the hardest hit markets in the US, the number of home closings fell from 3360 closings in June to 2948 in July.
*
That's a drop of 12% from June of this year and a drop of 21% from July one year ago, BUT June and July 2009 sales were some of our highest closing numbers on record - ever.
*
In Las Vegas, any time we sell more than 2900 homes a month, business is brisk. If, between the banks' mismanagement of the real estate industry they now control by default and the Media Bad-NEWS-Bears, a further drop in home prices is engineered, closing numbers in Vegas will go through the roof as cash investors swoop in
like vultures. But, should we hit 4000 sales in a month, and further drop in home prices could trigger that, I trust no one will note the increased sales volume.
*
Have I mentioned short sales? Yes, I have. When lots of people put short sales in contract and only 5-7% of them close, closing numbers are apt to dip. Added to the investors who have decided to wait to see if prices really do fall, plus the end of the home buyer tax credit, it is a wonder that Las Vegas closings are down only 12% from June, 1020.
*
It is not unusual for Las Vegas closings to dip in July and flatten out in August. If the drop becomes a trend over the next couple of months, that might be significant. Otherwise,..."Papers! Get yer Papers Here!"
*
In Las Vegas, one of the hardest hit markets in the US, the number of home closings fell from 3360 closings in June to 2948 in July.
*
That's a drop of 12% from June of this year and a drop of 21% from July one year ago, BUT June and July 2009 sales were some of our highest closing numbers on record - ever.
*
In Las Vegas, any time we sell more than 2900 homes a month, business is brisk. If, between the banks' mismanagement of the real estate industry they now control by default and the Media Bad-NEWS-Bears, a further drop in home prices is engineered, closing numbers in Vegas will go through the roof as cash investors swoop in
like vultures. But, should we hit 4000 sales in a month, and further drop in home prices could trigger that, I trust no one will note the increased sales volume.
*
Have I mentioned short sales? Yes, I have. When lots of people put short sales in contract and only 5-7% of them close, closing numbers are apt to dip. Added to the investors who have decided to wait to see if prices really do fall, plus the end of the home buyer tax credit, it is a wonder that Las Vegas closings are down only 12% from June, 1020.
*
It is not unusual for Las Vegas closings to dip in July and flatten out in August. If the drop becomes a trend over the next couple of months, that might be significant. Otherwise,..."Papers! Get yer Papers Here!"
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