December 2010 SFR Volumes
December posted another strong month of SFR sales, with a total of 3117 units reported. This was a 12.2% increase over the Nov 2010 volume, which places 2010 as the second highest annual volume in the past 6 years, 34,434 SFR units vs, 38,127 units for 2009.
December 2010 SFR Average Sales Price
December posted an Average sales price of $163,736, this was a .7% increase from Nov 2010, and a .2% increase over Dec 2009. A very narrow SFR price range has continued consistently since Apr 2009.
Many factors continue to be at play for 2010 with both price and volume, such as the banks holding onto foreclosed properties for longer periods between acquisition and resale, lenders are becoming increasingly agreeable to short sale negotiation and of course the economy in Nevada. (Used with permission from Linda Sitko, Fidelity Natl Title)
Linda mentions lenders becoming more agreeable to short sales. As you know if you read my blog, I am a non-believer. When the short sale close ratio (16%) begins to approach the REO/traditional close ratio (above 70%), then we'll think the banks are getting cozy with short sales.
As for sales, more than 3000 in a month is a whole lot. It means multiple offers on all the good stuff. If you spotted it (on the internet) so did everybody else. That is why the average price crept up in Dec. When I get time, we'll check and see if the % of list price shows a drop in the acceptance of low ball offers.
That doesn't mean that prices can't fall as predicted. Nothing is certain.
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
Las Vegas Residential Volatility to Continue
This from RISMEDIA, January 18, 2011: Housing WILL see gradual improvements in activity this year as the nation’s economy and job market continue to move to higher ground, establishing momentum that WILL produce more considerable gains in 2012, according to economists who appeared at the NAHB International Builders’ Show in Orlando on January 12. (Capitol letters by GH. They are taking as big a chance as I am for sharing this!)
Compare and contrast with the following:
"During 2010, Las Vegas residential real estate inventories followed a path of ups and downs as sales volumes in the resale and new construction sectors were impacted by government intervention and pricing slid to new lows during the latest cycle. Pricing movements taking place during the past several years in the southern Nevada market have raised the region’s national profile. Unfortunately, the profile has been characterized by record-setting price depreciation and foreclosure activity in recent years, which followed opposite trends reported during the majority of the 2004 to 2006 timeframe when price point increases were atop the price appreciation rankings. Regardless of the metrics analyzed, there is one certainty – that there is no certainty." (Used with permission from Krysta Sitko, Assistant Vice President / Business Development, Fidelity National Title)
I concur with the latter. There is no certainty. What I truly wonder is whether the world economy is now moving off the recognized playing board and into unknown territory in which the business cycles relied upon in the past do not apply any more.
I know that right now Vegas real estate is very busy and I get the feeling that people are acting AS IF a recovery is coming. I think a new normal may be developing wherein buyers and investors are actively snapping up the good deals. I just don't know what is next. In any event, good hunting.
Compare and contrast with the following:
"During 2010, Las Vegas residential real estate inventories followed a path of ups and downs as sales volumes in the resale and new construction sectors were impacted by government intervention and pricing slid to new lows during the latest cycle. Pricing movements taking place during the past several years in the southern Nevada market have raised the region’s national profile. Unfortunately, the profile has been characterized by record-setting price depreciation and foreclosure activity in recent years, which followed opposite trends reported during the majority of the 2004 to 2006 timeframe when price point increases were atop the price appreciation rankings. Regardless of the metrics analyzed, there is one certainty – that there is no certainty." (Used with permission from Krysta Sitko, Assistant Vice President / Business Development, Fidelity National Title)
I concur with the latter. There is no certainty. What I truly wonder is whether the world economy is now moving off the recognized playing board and into unknown territory in which the business cycles relied upon in the past do not apply any more.
I know that right now Vegas real estate is very busy and I get the feeling that people are acting AS IF a recovery is coming. I think a new normal may be developing wherein buyers and investors are actively snapping up the good deals. I just don't know what is next. In any event, good hunting.
Thursday, January 6, 2011
Short Sales re-visited again!
I used to think only 7% of short sales in escrow closed, but that has changed.
They are at last in double digits - the lowest of double digits.
Of 5949 short sales in escrow, Las Vegas closed 766 in the past 30 days. = 13% success rate. (this is better than it has been!) "Hey coach, put me in. I'm making 13% of my shots and I shoot like crazy!"
There are another 6300 short sales in ER (available) status in the Las Vegas valley.
Of 2828 NON-short sales in escrow, Las Vegas closed 2114 in the past 30 days = 75% success rate. Even Kobe rarely hits this percentage.
There are another 6244 NON-short sales available.
Short sales are half the market. There are three times as many shorts in escrow as non-shots, but there are only 1/4 as many short sale closings as regular closings.
My advice still is "take the high percentage shot" and bench the low percentage player.
Good Hunting.
They are at last in double digits - the lowest of double digits.
Of 5949 short sales in escrow, Las Vegas closed 766 in the past 30 days. = 13% success rate. (this is better than it has been!) "Hey coach, put me in. I'm making 13% of my shots and I shoot like crazy!"
There are another 6300 short sales in ER (available) status in the Las Vegas valley.
Of 2828 NON-short sales in escrow, Las Vegas closed 2114 in the past 30 days = 75% success rate. Even Kobe rarely hits this percentage.
There are another 6244 NON-short sales available.
Short sales are half the market. There are three times as many shorts in escrow as non-shots, but there are only 1/4 as many short sale closings as regular closings.
My advice still is "take the high percentage shot" and bench the low percentage player.
Good Hunting.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)