I got an email from Kim Petersen at American Title. She wrote. "I’m attaching our April, 2010, reports for you to review and as always, hope that you’re able to use them in your day to day business as you continue to educate your clients about our market. You’ll notice that the majority of the properties that were scheduled to go to trustee sale were postponed (about 48%) more than likely due to a pending loan modification or pending short sale."
I think the banks just postpone because they don't want to increase the number of REO's at the moment.
Whe I do the math based on the April Graph Kim sent, I see that 89,871 properties were given a notice of default in the past 12 months. But, only 23,479 were sold by the trustee. Given that they took 48% of the ones that got a notice of sale, the bank only took 26% of the ones in default. There are 66,392 homes in Default.
To put that in perspective, MLS data shows there are 1697 bank owned (REO) listings for sale today, of all types - condos, SFR, Manufactured. Let's presume they all close every month. Of all the short sales on the market or in escrow (12,600+/-) we close about 600 a month or 6-7%(MLS data). What that means is we have enough property in default to maintain the May 2010 status quo for about 28 years!
Unless something changes in the efficiency of closing short sales, we could be dragging bottom for a long time, especially if the banks continue to refuse to give the seller a full release. The HAFA act MIGHT help with owner occuped homes, Maybe.
Flippers that bought cheap and those who bought before the bubble are much sought after because they respond to your offfer and they close.
I hear a good rumor that several thousand REO's will hit the market mid summer. Looking at the data, it could happen. Or the banks could drag it out. As I have said before, this is not a buyer's market. It is a bankers market.
In the meantime, if you need a Realtor, Call House!
No comments:
Post a Comment